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Recently, NoDQ.com webmaster, CEO, Chairman of the Board, and recently verified on Twitter (BOOM!) Aaron Rift recently posed the following opinion on Twitter: “I love Reigns but I believe Smackdown would be under 2 million if it wasn’t on network TV.”
If you remember, that one week where Roman Reigns appeared on RAW, hyped in advance, during September 2021 and only drew 1.8 million on a stacked RAW card. That was the week where the WWE didn’t want to lose against the Arthur Ashe stadium “Grand Slam” AEW Dynamite special.
Hmmm… Interesting point. Let’s evaluate the WWE Smackdown on FOX experiment in today’s column, provided that we’ve seen over 2 years of it by now and coming up on the the 3rd year, the WWE shall begin negotiations for the next television deal. WWE’s current deal with FOX is for September 2019 through September 2024 and is estimated at being valued at $1 billion today or $200 million per year.
First and foremost, I’ve already covered a major issue that I have with WWE Smackdown on FOX in my 10/05/2021 column entitled “Friday Nights are NOT Alright for WWE or AEW Television Shows”. My whole point of the column was to explain how the lower end of the 18-49 demographic + teenagers under 18 years old are NOT staying home on Friday nights to watch television at all. In fact, Fridays are the WORST evening, in terms of # of viewers, for television. Younger kids or adults attend High School sporting events, go on dates, party, or are getting laid on Friday Nights. It’s just a FACT. WWE is going to lose generations of viewers by placing a top show on Friday when potential younger fans aren’t available to watch it (DVR and Hulu numbers are both down, so that argument of “watching it later” is out the window).
With my obvious FRIDAY argument out of the way, let’s dive deep into some numbers and statistics.
FOX is one of the 5 major networks that are free to anyone to view, within range, as long as they have at least a digital antenna. However, most Cable/Satellite channels have local NBC, ABC, CBS, FOX, and CW channels available in their packages. From most of the website sources that I Googled, it appears that FOX is available to about 115 million houseshows in the United States.
Meanwhile, USA Network is offered primarily on Cable, Satellite, and Streaming services. The difference between FOX and USA Network is that USA is attached to a subscription service which has a price to the consumer each month. Just 3 years ago, USA Network was estimated to have around 90 million available households but I’ve seen estimates from news articles suggest that it has dropped to around 85 million. Thanks to streaming services and younger generations of people just not signing up for Cable/Satellite, subscriptions for paid television services are dropping. USA Network was trending towards 100 million households through the early 2010s but have been on a decline since the peak of 2012.
– USA Network: 85 Million Households
– FOX: 115 Million Households
Before I get into viewership numbers, THANK YOU to Gerweck.net for archiving television viewership data. Such a reliable source of information and I appreciate your website very much!
Here are the Average # of Viewers for 2021 WWE RAW and Smackdown:
– RAW: 1,771,146 Viewers
– Smackdown: 2,104,870 Viewers
Now, I know that I’m dealing with Households for one and viewers for another… Technically speaking, the United States Census measures that the American household contains about 2.53 people.
If you redo my above math, here is the REAL potential # of viewers that both FOX and USA Network could have:
– USA Network: 215,050,000 potential viewers
– FOX: 290,950,000 potential viewers
Granted, it’s very likely that the 0.53 includes many small children who aren’t regular viewers, but let’s just go with it because that’s difficult to count without getting too deep into the Census’s numbers and I’m just trying to write a wrestling column here.
So if you simply do the math of RAW average viewers divided by USA Network’s potential viewers and also do the same for Smackdown’s average viewers divided by FOX’s potential viewers…
– RAW % of total USA Network potential viewers = 0.82%
– Smackdown % of total FOX potential viewers = 0.72%
There you go… Technically speaking, WWE RAW on USA Network is outperforming WWE Smackdown on FOX.
Now, that’s not all the way true… Sundays through Thursdays are the top television nights and Friday is the worst viewed night. The availability of viewership comes into question, as again, younger viewers are attending High School sporting events, going on dates, partying, or are getting laid on Friday Nights. For Monday Night, it’s a “school night” as your parents would tell you or you have to work the next day. Thus, no partying and your likelihood of staying home is much stronger. Mondays, according to a few survey websites from past years, actually appears to be one of the strongest viewed television nights.
The real question would be this: is the difference in total potential viewers between FOX and USA Network, which equals roughly 75 million (290 million for FOX minus 215 million for USA Network) equate the number of younger kids of adults attending High School sporting events, going on dates, partying, and/or getting laid.
According to WWE’s own demographics for WWE Smackdown, the answer is NO… For the 11/26 edition of Smackdown, WWE scored a 0.38 for the 18-34 demographic, 0.68 for the 25-54 demographic, and a 0.57 for 18-49… YET, if you look at the 50+ demographic, the WWE did a freakin’ 2.6! LOOK at that number. That means that WWE Smackdown is strongly viewed by wrestling fans 50+ and older as a strong majority. Now, I know many who enjoy watching High School sports, but many of those folks are settled in to do the other things that younger people are doing (and are married, too!).
I would suggest that yes, the WWE might be missing its viewership potential on Friday Nights with WWE Smackdown. They are losing the younger demographic by being on Friday Nights but they could be underperforming on a network by not enticing more of the 290 potential viewers on FOX.
But here is what you didn’t know about viewership on FOX… It was much higher during the years BEFORE Smackdown arrived. FOX had a pair of 30 minute shows called Last Man Standing and The Cool Kids through May 2019 that consistently drew between 3 to 5 million each during the 8pm hour. Then, they had a 1 hour drama called Proven Innocent that drew just above 1.5 million. The one hour drama underperformed, but the 2 shows at 8pm certainly did well and significantly outdrew them.
The question is this: Did the sum of those shows cost more than $200 million per year, which the WWE is earning for WWE Smackdown from 8pm to 10pm on Fridays?
Here’s another question: What kind of advertising revenue could those 3 shows pull in for FOX through May 2019? Because Pro Wrestling draws weak advertising revenues, historically speaking, and a Network TV show that pulls in 3-5 million probably has decent advertising rates.
And now, let’s take this topic to a whole another level…
Who is drawing on WWE Smackdown since it debuted on FOX during October 2019?
In the past, I used statistical models to test who was truly drawing as World Champion on RAW and also AEW Dynamite. My findings were, for example, that Edge and John Cena actually ADDED to viewership for RAW whereas Seth Rollins and Roman Reigns, through 2016 as I was testing, were major drags on viewership as World Champions (see 2015-2016, especially). For AEW Dynamite, I found inconclusive results when I initially tested it, but Kenny Omega later proved to be a statistically significant drag on AEW Dynamite’s viewership as champion once I had more data.
I tried that with Smackdown’s data but I had inconclusive results. Excluding the FS1 shows, Smackdown has an average of 2.2 million per show with just under 300,000 standard deviation. If you take out those first 2 weeks, the average drops a tad and the standard deviation drops.
Then, I was trying to measure Braun Strowman’s title reign during the Summer of 2020 but I couldn’t quite chart it because he lost that title to the Fiend and then the Fiend lost it to Roman Reigns. From May to July 2020, the declining trend is there against Braun’s favor but the statistical models just weren’t showing any statistical significance. Not much difference between a 1.8 million show versus a 2.0 million viewed show, apparently.
Maybe if you looked at Smackdown’s viewership by Quarters?
4th Quarter 2019 2,610,333
1st Quarter 2020 2,507,846 -3.9%
2nd Quarter 2020 2,103,385 -16.1%
3rd Quarter 2020 2,002,154 -4.8%
4th Quarter 2020 2,221,545 11.0%
1st Quarter 2021 2,124,417 -4.4%
2nd Quarter 2021 2,029,154 -4.5%
3rd Quarter 2021 2,135,286 5.2%
4th Quarter 2021 2,151,143 0.7%
I’m seeing some slight fluctuations but since COVID-19 hit, WWE has been tightly between 2.0 and 2.25 million viewers on average. Look at the 2nd Quarter of 2020 through now. It’s extreme consistency.
The trend I’m looking at, however, is how 3rd Quarter 2020 started to possibly erode following the 2nd quarter with the Braun Strowman vs. Bray Wyatt/The Fiend feud and was potentially “saved” by Roman Reigns at SummerSlam 2020 and the Smackdown episodes after that. However, trying to crunch numbers in statistical models did not provide me any significance.
So here’s the question… Will FOX renew for another 3-5 years once the 2019-2024 deal is up? Are they receiving a good WWE product? It’s consistently providing 2 million+ viewers per week with original content. I’m willing to bet that WWE’s 2 hour show is cheaper to produce at $200 million per year than it is paying for Hollywood produced shows at those times. On top of that, by paying a flat fee to the WWE, FOX is earning 100% of the advertisement revenue on WWE Smackdown.
However, there have been rumblings that FOX expected higher numbers from the WWE and during this past WWE Brand Split DRAFT, they were quite demanding to retain (a) Roman Reigns and (b) Charlotte Flair. FOX was also demanding on having Michael Cole on WWE Smackdown as the announcer. On top of that, WWE and FOX’s relationship became a bit frosty at first when the 2019 Draft, after WWE began airing on FOX during October 2019, sent Brock Lesnar to RAW in exchange for Bray Wyatt/Fiend going to Smackdown.
If you want my prediction for the next TV deal, I believe that FOX will walk away from the deal or lowball the WWE on the next deal. 2 million viewers just isn’t enough for them on Prime Time television, provided what the 2 shows prior to WWE Smackdown did during the 8pm hour. I also believe that WWE’s affection for Comcast became stronger since the 2019 deals began. Since then, the WWE sold their WWE Network rights to Comcast’s Peacock streaming network. I believe this shall translate into more streaming opportunities for WWE down the road.
I believe that WWE will also “come to their senses” that having a show on Network TV on Fridays just isn’t worth it. They are losing generations of younger fans who are attending High School sporting events, going on dates, partying, and/or getting laid on Friday nights and Fridays are also the last viewed day of the week for television purposes. Unless the next deal can land the WWE a better TV spot, which is doubtful, I believe that you could see the return of Thursday Night Smackdown but on Peacock or possibly Amazon Prime after 2024. Friday night is just the worst night for hosting anything for television.
While the WWE gained financially from the FOX deal, it shall be proven to be a great short-term financial deal but bad for the WWE’s fanbase growth long-term. I’m in agreement with Aaron Rift, the verified one of NoDQ.com… Roman Reigns could be an even bigger star if he was on Monday Nights, as more people are available to watch television and RAW is a routine for most fans. If RAW happened to be on FOX Network during Monday Nights, they’d probably draw at least 2.5 million viewers, if not more.
I’ll predict it now… WWE Smackdowns on Fridays is going to end through 2024, if not before that. It’s just not the best day for Pro Wrestling and it restricts younger people from ever caring about your promotion.
So just chill… Until the next episode!
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