MR. TITO: Is WWE Over-Saturating the Market With Too Many Shows?
“Those who do not remember history are condemned to repeat it”, as George Santayana once stated… Want to know what did great harm to World Championship Wrestling, who was the #1 promotion through 1997? They expanded to 3 hours for WCW Nitro during August 1997 and then created a new 2 hour weekly show called WCW Thunder. That was in addition to already having WCW Saturday Night in place.
Want to know what slowed down the WWE Attitude Era? They added a new 2-hour WWE Smackdown show during late 1999.
Want to know what killed WWE’s Pay Per View business? Having brand-exclusive Pay Per Views to challenge their WWE fans to depart more of their hard-earned dollars towards MULTIPLE monthly Pay Per Views per year.
If you over-saturate your product, fans will begin to turn away… Combine that with insanely high ticket prices along with economic strains that still reside, and WWE’s business model could be at risk.
I’d also argue that we’ve seen top stars like Roman Reigns, Cody Rhodes, and maybe even CM Punk already peaking. I’m just not buying Rollins/Breakker/Reed stable with Paul Heyman, either. Those 3 wrestlers just don’t seem to fit together, as chemistry matters.
But let’s get back into what WWE demands of its fans right now:
– WWE RAW on Netflix averages 2.5 hours per week
– WWE NXT on CW is a 2 hour show
– WWE Smackdwon is currently a 3 hour show (may revert back to 2 hours, reportedly)
At least once per month:
– WWE Premium Live Event up to 3 hours, sometimes 4 hours (commanding weekend nights now for Wrestlemania and SummerSlam)
At least once per quarter:
– WWE Saturday Night’s Main Event on NBC for 2 hours
And now these shows as well:
– WWE LFG on A&E
– WWE Unreal on Netflix
– WWE Evolve on Tubi
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Americans are working 38.7 hours per week which translates to the standard 7.5 hours per day for 5 working days. Certainly, there are part-time employees working fewer hours but also folks working on salary who are working more than that (plus overtime employees, if granted).
The average household has about 2 children…
Income gaps have widened, and REAL or inflation-adjusted incomes for Americans have grown less than 2% for the past 10 years. This not only places strain on WWE fans buying tickets, but also attempting to feed their families, pay for vehicles (also going up in price), and housing or rent (going way up in price). Healthcare, college education, and utilities have also gone way up.
Honestly, I’m impressed with the WWE business model of 2025 that has gotten away with charging so much for tickets for live events. Goes to show you how STRONG the WWE was during Wrestlemania season for 2024. History has shown that peak wrestling promotions can carry on great business 1 year following their peak. For example, WCW during 1998 when the NWO began fizzling out or the WWE during 2000 or 2001 when the peak years of Stone Cold were over.
I believe that WWE risks a potential CRASH of their business model based on over-saturation and untimely price increases in the face of a possible economic recession. But again, I don’t believe that the WWE’s QUALITY is as strong for 2025 as it was this time through 2024. Last year, we still had a HEEL Roman Reigns, a returning heel The Rock, and Cody Rhodes still chasing the title. Now, we have a not-as-over babyface Roman Reigns taking yet another vacation, the Rock disappearing back to Hollywood, and the shine not as bring on Cody, especially after a poor showing by him at Wrestlemania 41 with a sour puss performance when dropping the title.
But look at the ages of your top stars right now…
– Roman Reigns just turned 40
– Seth Rollins just turned 39
– CM Punk is 46, about to turn 47
– Cody Rhodes is 39, about to turn 40
– John Cena just turned 48 years old, and he’s going to retire this year
– The Rock just turned 53 year old (if he ever shows up again)
While the female ranks has more of a youth movement (Tiffany and Rhea are both under 30 years old), Becky Lynch is 38 years old and Charlotte Flair is 39 years old. But, the female division has yet to prove in the WWE that they be sustainable draws for main events of WWE shows. All of this talk of the Evolution show coming back, just remember, their first Evolution show in New York City did not draw…
My worries is that the WWE just doesn’t have the quality horses to sustain doing all of these shows, as veterans are getting older but there isn’t a strong youth movement coming up to replace the veterans who may be retiring soon or whom the WWE may be releasing…
If you’re burning out and burning through your talent roster, the show’s quality will begin to drop and the demand to see WWE live will also drop ESPECIALLY with HIGHER ticket prices.
With WWE touring too much right now and having so much stuff on television, WWE is potentially causing the “law of diminishing utility” phenomenon occurring. That’s an economics term for each unit of added satisfaction DECLINES when more additional units are consumed. Think about eating a bunch of pizza… First slice is delicious, but each additional slice doesn’t taste as good and then eventually, you get sick of eating pizza or literally sick of eating too much pizza (“he’s gonna puke!”). Too much WWE quantity, especially with higher prices, is going to eventually scare viewers away.
WWE RAW just reportedly had one of its lowest Netflix viewership numbers. Now granted, it was 2.6 million worldwide, but we’re already down from around 5 million from what initially happened at the start of the year. WWE Smackdown had its WORST week last week with viewership being under 1.3 million viewers on USA Network. NXT is consistently under 700,000 viewers now after being above that when starting off with their show on the CW Network available to around 100 million households.
Wrestlemania 41 did 57,000 on night 1 and 60,000 on Night 2, but both numbers were lower than Royal Rumble 2025 did with 70,000 in attendance.
I really worry about SummerSlam 2025 in New York City… Granted, WWE is in a populous city, but the ticket prices for both nights are outrageous. And again, what is being placed on this card? Roman and Cody aren’t as effective now as draws and I just don’t see the “sense of urgency” that will create a match to headline either night.
LESS is MORE, folks… Too much quantity subtracts from quantity. If I were a certain promoter from the Jacksonville area with an “elite” promotion, I’d focus on only the Dynamite show being the strong focus and then the Pay Per Views. Keep tickets reasonably priced as a contrast to the WWE, but keep trying hard on the Pay Per View shows (as they have been) to see if they can max out their drawing ability there with a less-saturated promotion.
THIS is what happens when you place a wrestling promotion in the hands of CORPORATE types. Time Warner expanded Nitro to 3 hours and then wanted WCW Thunder created. Over-exposed WCW. Owners of UPN offered the WWE a primetime Thursday Night show with WWE Smackdown and they took it. During the 2010s, USA Network offered WWE an additional hour for RAW to make that a 3-hour show.
TKO has WWE placing ads all over the WWE rings, while having commercials on RAW for Netflix even when the expectation that no commercials are on premium subscriptions of Netflix.
WWE’s growth was powered by the Bloodline angle that was led by a heel Roman Reigns… WWE doesn’t have that now and what remains isn’t the piecemeal equivalent of that. The lack of payoff of having Rock vs. Roman has left fans hanging and Roman didn’t receive that big victory to put him over as a babyface. Cody Rhodes is a better chaser than a champion, and he was chasing the Bloodline back then, by the way. Rest of the roster is good, but aging fast. Nothing with strong drawing ability coming up.
And now, WWE has moved Wrestlemania out of Minnesota and New Orleans for 2 straight years… Not only are they burning out their fans, but might be harming the goodwill of staple cities by being a greedy corporation chasing the almighty dollar.
Go ahead and sell more of your big events to the Middle East… See how that strains your already burned out North American fans who have given their hard-earned dollars to you.
Don’t forget that Endeavor was acquired by private equity firm Silver Lake and that acquisition completed through March 2025. Be careful, as many businesses who were owned by private equity firms quickly fizzled after said private equity firm squeezed all of the juice out of the turnip of those companies. Look at any bankrupt retailer or restaurant chain and you’ll see that the common pattern or trait is a private equity firm that owns them. They’ll pull the equity out of the firm, run up debt, and then declare bankruptcy. If Endeavor and/or TKO runs up significant debt, I’d get worried as a WWE fan.
Makes me wonder if Silver Lake/Endeavor/TKO are pulling as much as they can out of their fans, television partners, and host cities as they can…
And again, quit demanding that “things would be better if Vince McMahon were still in charge”. Remember, he FORCED the sale of the WWE to TKO. Never forget that.
Personally for me, I’ll continue to catch highlights on WWE shows on YouTube or social media while watching PLEs… That’s comfortable for me, as I don’t need to spend my life watching too much quantity of WWE content. LESS is MORE to me, too…