The Truth of AEW’s TV future: Murky at best
Its tough sometimes trying to separate the narrative from reality. Too many people get caught up in thought pieces, “feelings”, influencers, and opinion over fact because its just easier. But over the last month, its time for pro wrestling fans to start really giving credence to just the facts in front of them.
The fact is that despite everything Tony Khan says, AEW is in trouble and their future is in serious peril.
I am not predicting that they will go out of business within the next six months. This company will be surviving as long as Shad Khan wants it to and if it has a television home on a major platform. And for now, its on track to be airing until December 31st, 2027.
But we have learned alot from the news media and from more credible sources outside of “rasslin media” to know that their future isn’t rosy.
This has nothing to do with “WWE is better” or “TNA is the #2 brand” or even “AEW IS AEWSOME” people. It never did because in the real world the only thing that matters is profits and losses and that is what this is coming down to.
Not the thousand wrestling fans who post comments on YouTube Videos or even in NoDQ because we don’t matter to a bigger group of people who make these decisions.
I state this because people have taken Tony Khan’s press statements as gospel and that all is well.
Might as well believe politicians then when they tell you “NO NEW TAXES”. They are lying to you and spinning it to avoid telling you bad news that will freak people out and turn on them.
But if you don’t believe me about AEW, that is fine but here are the stone cold facts that need to be taken and digested.
1: Paramount is looking to save money
When Paramount bought WBD for 110.9 BILLION Dollars, everyone had the understanding that the new bosses were going to start finding ways to slash expenses. In every business merger, its fact that when these things happen, people get laid off and non essential materials or properties are sold off to recoup money or stop waste..
According to John McMullen of Sports Illustrated, David Zaslav told Tony Khan way back in the summer of 2025 that AEW had 12-16 months to secure a new TV deal. Basically they couldn’t be guaranteed an automatic renewal because the “others would be making the decision.”
Fast forward to now and Paramount has had to overpay to win the bid and buy WBD and that means that everything is going to be audited.
Every Department, major Intellectual Property, contract and even employees are going to be reviewed to see if they are worth keeping. This isn’t about feelings but cold hard business and money matters over “feelings.
For every year AEW is on WBD programming, Paramount is going to pay them between 150 to 185 million dollars per the contract. In the grand scheme of things that is alot of money when you consider what professional wrestling is viewed as a category with TV executives.
The WBD upfronts put AEW along with the following show: 90 Day Fiancé, Shark Week, Guy Fieri Tournament of Champions and other reality shows/competitions.
This is proof that professional wrestling is not a live sport despite what others online say. If it were live sports, it would be presented alongside PGA events, NHL, MLB and NFL. Instead it was listed with the reality television programs which are known for two things.
A passionate fanbase and also inexpensive to make and produce which is why networks invest in them. They cost anywhere between 100k to 500k per episode to produce which is inexpensive compared to other network shows.
You can only imagine accountants looking at All Elite Wrestling’s 150 plus million per year and telling Paramount officials “that is too much.”.
For every television program that is kept, the consensus will be that this show can generate money from subscriptions and from advertisers. If it generates more money than it does to make it, it will be kept on air and continues to be funded.
Some shows are kept because they can maybe add something else: Awards, prestige or its an IP that can be spun into something that is for casual mainstream audiences. The problem has been pro wrestling is not that and never has been because its an entity to its own.
But one entity that has already given notice of what they want to do with WBD programming…
2) UFC EYEING TBS AND TNT SPOTS
Before Paramount officially won the bid for WBD, TKO executive Mark Shapiro publicly stated “they are “excited” about the prospect of bringing UFC and Zuffa Boxing events to WBD networks like TNT, TBS, and HBO”
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This was even before Paramount won the bid. Now that they have ownership, UFC is going to be all over WBD programming thanks to the closer relationship with TKO and David Ellison.
And when I mean TKO, I mean Ari Emmanuel and Mark Shapiro’s relationship with David Ellison and not the one that Tony Khan claims to have.
Ari has been an advisor to David going back to when David owned Skydance only and before he was the big media mogul today. Ari Emanuel served as an informal advisor to David Ellison during the Skydance takeover of Paramount Global, helping navigate political and industry hurdles. Its not just a friendship but a business partnership that has helped both men over the last decade building their empires.
This helped TKO land a 7-year ,7 billion dollar rights deal with Paramount for the UFC to stream on the Paramount Plus/CBS. Its also allowed them to land TKO Boxing, which has been adding bigger names to become a rising force in the combat sports.
But if you know UFC, they are always thinking about how to expand their reach and to get their name and rising fights to more eyeballs. And to them, WBD offers them the chance to expand their audience while still honoring their deal with Paramount.
Instead of UFC 349 streaming the entire card on Paramount Plus, they will want to put the undercard on TNT or TBS. How about watching that mega heavyweight boxing fight on TKO Wednesday Fights on TNT instead of streaming it on Paramount Plus.
This isn’t just random thoughts by me or anyone, this has been confirmed as pitches by Mark Shapiro to business investors are recent meetings.
And unless you’re an AEW fan, that gives alot of context to the severity of why AEW Dynamite and AEW Collision are on the chopping block. TKO has plans for those time spots and are already talking with Paramount about the future.
This isn’t personal, its just business in their eyes. TKO is about expanding their reach and holding as much real estate as possible in the streaming media/TV landscape. And now that the Paramount/WBD is nearly official, they are planning to take over the spots.
Do I think that there will be satisfaction from Nick Khan and Ari to stick it to Tony Khan?
Sure!
Billionaires and millionaires have long memories and can be a bit spiteful when you provoke them. When Tony referred to WWE as “Harvey Weinstein of pro wrestling” “The only successful Khan in wrestling” and “Evil Empire”, you had to know that they were going to respond.
Not by going on social media and saying petty things. That is playground crap to them. No, to business moguls like TKO, they will just wait until the time is right and when they can take something away from Tony, they will revel in it.
But the bottom line is still business and for TKO, UFC on TNT and WBD is good business and allows them to grow the brand.
You can also bet that eventually, they could even package a new WWE show on Paramount Plus, if the deal is right.
Which should give Tony Khan and AEW concern about the following scary fact.
3) The Media landscape has changed… and not in AEW’s favor.
When AEW got its TV deal from WBD, in some ways they were at an advantage in that WBD needed the content:
They just lost the NBA media rights, nothing else was available to purchase that could fill the void if AEW walked, and it was cheaper than trying to purchase more live sports. The working theory was also that Shad Khan could possibly direct a package of NFL games to WBD when the NFL was looking to expand its TV portfolio
Fast forward to 2026, and all of the sudden AEW finds itself looking at a landscape that if WBD does move on from AEW, there isn’t an obvious home for them..
Netflix, CW, ABC/ESPN and NBC are all in TV partnerships with WWE in some form from NXT to RAW or Smackdown.
FOX has given no inkling to get into the wrestling business after parting ways with WWE and selling off parts of their media packages.
Amazon Prime could be an option in theory but their history is one of either Major Live sports (NFL, NBA and MLB) or relying on their own Amazon Studios .
Apple TV is a streaming service only that focuses on MLB and its own original programming while STARZ has moved away from male audience shows and focus on more female programming.
The rest is where it could get tricky as other channels would not be able to afford what AEW needs to be functional. TNA Wrestling gets 10 million per year from AMC and while AEW gets bigger ratings than TNA, 10 million won’t even cover Mercedes Mone and Okada’s combined salary, let alone the salary of a roster over 200 wrestlers.
As John McMullen reported, if AEW doesn’t get renewed then Tony Khan is prepared to move the product to YouTube. Its why the MyAEW program has started as a way to generate income for the company until they can find a television partner
Could there be a network that is willing to pick up AEW? Sure as its live content and networks are always looking for something they can put on to air.
The challenge will be the money as once you get past the Big Four (ABC/CBS/NBC/FOX), Amazon and Netflix, the options become less appealing financially. Most networks aren’t going to spend big money that they don’t have especially on “reality TV” that doesn’t bring in the eyeballs or the money that could boost the network.
The TV ratings have shown that AEW has steadily declined over the years as they averaged 1 million viewers to now they are averaging around 500 to 600k viewers per episode. That is on a major platform that is available to hundreds of millions of homes in the US.
Put AEW on say Tubi, Roku or Comet TV, and the viewership might be closer to 120-200k per episode.
That means the package will be around six to seven figure TV deals and not the nine figures that AEW gets to be operational.
The stone cold truth is that right now AEW’s future is not as secure as Tony likes to portray it.
This is all under the assumption of ifs and possibly.
As in IF AEW can convince Paramount or another major network to not just sign a rights deal with AEW, but pay it the 9 figures that it needs to operates as is currently stands.
IF David Ellison decided to keep AEW until its the 12/31/2027 deadline instead of buying AEW out early. That is a realistic possibility as he has no personal ties or love to AEW. He didn’t sign the contract, he isn’t a close business partner with Tony Khan and he doesn’t need to keep them for any sentimental or business reasons.
From the talent becoming who they want to be without a creative repackage, to the action in the ring, you’re getting a product unfettered by too many hands in the cookie jar. More and more are starting to notice this, and more and more are starting to revisit AEW again.
There is a realistic scenario that Paramount could just drop AEW at the end of the 2026 year. David Ellison stated that he hopes to finalize government approval of the purchase as early as July. He could easily give AEW the boot before November and start plans to move the UFC into those time slots.
You know Mark Shapiro and Ari Emmanuel are going to push for it as to them its just good business.
Meanwhile for AEW the cold hard truth is that nothing right now is guaranteed in terms of its future. Tony Khan owns AEW but the money is from his father and not him.
How long would Shad Khan support AEW if there is no path to growth? The belief was that as long as AEW was on network TV and getting paid by the network, there was a path to profitability.
Even Tony Khan has been unable to say that AEW is profitable. Every time he has been asked that question, he keeps dodging it by saying “we are generating its highest revenues in history”.
That means they are grossing more money but doesn’t also mention they are spending more money than in previous years.
With a roster over 202 wrestlers, AEW has found itself to be a company that NEEDS a major TV deal in order for it to be sustainable. Even now industry insiders wonder if AEW is profitable when you consider the size of the roster, tv production costs, and other expenses that could surpass over 200 million per year.
So despite Tony telling the world that all is well, the truth is that the future of AEW might be more troubling then what Tony wants the world to let on.