The new Warner Brothers Discovery deal and why it’s a risky one for AEW

So AEW and WBD announced their new deal yesterday, and I’m not necessarily seeing how this deal is positive for AEW.

The first thing that stood out is that they used the word “partnership” at the beginning of the statement, which makes me think that Tony had to relinquish a small part of ownership to WBD in order to make this deal happen. The problem with that is Tony might now have TV executives trying to have their say in creative decisions. If they’re not happy with how Tony runs the company, they probably have an exit clause, similar to how Spike TV had with TNA back in the day. So, what happens then?

Another thing that stood out was the money involved. $185 million a year for what seems to be a 3-year deal, according to Meltzer, which includes the rights to Dynamite, Collision, and PPVs later on in 2025. While it’s good for AEW because it gives them much more exposure, it’s also a double-edged sword. They will lose a significant amount of PPV streaming revenue from the U.S., which is their biggest market, because WBD will get 100% of that revenue when the PPVs move to Max next year. So, while AEW is getting more exposure, the big winners here are WBD. They’re getting more content for HBO Max, which, as of last summer, was on the verge of being discontinued by WBD, as they try to make the streaming service profitable.

Also, you have to consider that WBD isn’t a stable company right now. They still have a huge debt hanging over their heads, and it’s not like they’re raking in cash, especially with some of the big flops their movie division had this year. Combine that with all the other sections of the company that are in the red, and you can see how unstable WBD is.

Finally, as mentioned, this deal only covers Dynamite, Collision, and PPVs. That likely means WBD is canceling both Rampage and those Battle of the Belts specials, and Tony’s hope for getting ROH on Max or a WBD network is probably dead for now. While that’s good for AEW because it allows Tony Khan to focus more, it also shows how much WBD understands what works and what doesn’t in AEW programming. If either of those shows stop being profitable by the time this deal ends, WBD could easily pull the plug on the experiment.

In the end, this is a risky deal that Tony took, not just because he’s given WBD some power in dictating what he can and cannot do with his company, but also because of how unstable WBD is. What if, next year, David Zaslav decides to sell the whole company or parts of it, like the TV division? Who’s to say the new owner would still want AEW on their network? That’s probably the biggest risk Tony took by sticking with WBD. Still, it’s a very good deal for AEW, and I congratulate them for getting it. I’ll be following this situation closely to see if the risk was worth it or not.