MR. TITO: Was 5 Years on FOX for Friday Night Smackdown Productive for the WWE?

Before I begin, I’m going to make a very simple and obvious prediction about WWE Smackdown now on USA Network for Friday Nights… Its viewership is going to drop off significantly because of simple mathematics. The FOX Network, which can be obtained freely with a digital antenna, is available to over 100 million households in the United States. By comparison, USA Networks is presently available to just over 70 million via paid Cable/Satellite TV subscribers.

Over 30 million households less…

With time, the WWE is going to shift their top superstars and resources to ensure that the Netflix version of Monday Night RAW (or whatever night it appears) will be the #1 show and Smackdown will become the B-Show. 30 million+ less households will do that, plus Netflix is the bigger buyer of the WWE content and is available to 84 million subscribers but with an even larger global outreach. Furthermore, USA Networks is only going to lose subscribers with time.

So let’s look back on the 5-year WWE Smackdown that was on FOX… Was it worth going to Network Television even though it was on Friday Night?

As a FYI, this idea for a column has been in my head since the fine folks of NoDQ Review discussed the impact of WWE Smackdown being on FOX for the past 5 years. Also, Aaron Rift, owner of NoDQ, posted a question on his Twitter about how Smackdown could change with its move to USA Network (which I answered above). Just giving credit for the column idea where it is due…

Initially when WWE Smackdown moved to FOX starting during the Fall of 2019, I initially had worries. Yes, the allure of being available to over 100 million households is incredibly nice, but the Friday Night timeslot presents a challenge. Why? Well, during the Fall, High School Football is mostly played on Friday Nights and everyone, young and old, attends those in many areas around the United States. Following that, High School Basketball will command that Friday event slot in many local communities as well. In addition, Friday is prime real estate for date nights. Thus, when your choices are getting laid versus watching dudes performing scripted matches, the choice is easy for many.

And I believe that I was mostly right… If you look at WWE’s demographics for WWE Smackdown for past 5 years, it trended older. WWE’s numbers were thick in the latter half of the 18-49 key demo, while being heavy in the 50+ year old demo. In other words, older married men who weren’t going out on Friday nights and needed something to watch and Smackdown was conveniently placed at 8-10pm so that they can bang their wife after 10pm…

BUT, as I keep telling you folks, PEOPLE WILL CHASE QUALITY.

If you create demand for a quality product, people will MAKE TIME to consume it. Including on Friday Nights!

Thanks to turning Roman Reigns heel and pairing him with Paul Heyman to create the Bloodline storyline/stable, that demand was created to watch a wrestling show on Friday Nights.

Let’s take a look at the completed 5-year run of Smackdown and review viewership by AVERAGE viewership per quarter (excluding FS1 shows):

4Q-2019 2,610,333 N/A Above Average
1Q-2020 2,507,846 -3.9% Above Average
2Q-2020 2,103,385 -16.1% Below Average
3Q-2020 2,002,154 -4.8% Below Average
4Q-2020 2,221,545 11.0% Below Average
1Q-2021 2,129,538 -4.1% Below Average
2Q-2021 2,012,231 -5.5% Below Average
3Q-2021 2,147,923 6.7% Below Average
4Q-2021 2,136,818 -0.5% Below Average
1Q-2022 2,175,917 1.8% Below Average
2Q-2022 2,069,923 -4.9% Below Average
3Q-2022 2,170,643 4.9% Below Average
4Q-2022 2,276,636 4.9% Above Average
1Q-2023 2,366,077 3.9% Above Average
2Q-2023 2,308,846 -2.4% Above Average
3Q-2023 2,326,250 0.8% Above Average
4Q-2023 2,228,500 -4.2% Below Average
1Q-2024 2,397,615 7.6% Above Average
2Q-2024 2,252,615 -6.0% Above Average
3Q-2024 2,155,600 -4.3% Below Average

AVERAGE 2,230,020

So what do you see here? Well, WWE Smackdown was off to a decent start at first aggressively cooled down on FOX. You could blame COVID, which made shows look terrible in front of no crowds at the tiny WWE Performance Center. But I’m sorry, but trading World Champions between the rosters EARLY into the FOX Smackdown run just didn’t work for WWE Smackdown. While he may rest in peace and it’s tragic that he passed away, we were in the thick of the Fiend gimmick for Bray Wyatt. With due respect to Bray’s past accomplishments during the 2010s, this run with the Fiend did not work creatively and caused viewership to decline. FOX executives were complaining immediately about the content, too. Hence why Bill Goldberg won the World Title.

WWE Smackdown continued to limp along through the COVID Summer, trying to create the Thunderdome to boost the appearance of shows.

But then, possibly the best creative decision was ever made by the WWE. Roman Reigns not only returned, but he returned as a HEEL. Not only that, he had Paul Heyman with him. For years, WWE tried to bottle up Heyman’s influence on other wrestlers backstage while often refusing his input on anything. Now, with business declining, WWE as desperate… Could Paul Heyman FIX the attempted Main Eventer from the 2010s named Roman Reigns. He did and Roman was open to learning on his part, too. Not everyone that is paired with Heyman succeeds, just ask Ryback, Curtis Axel, and Cesaro. Unless a wrestler fully buys in and lets Heyman help them, they won’t grow. Roman just needed some guidance, as Vince McMahon’s vision for him wasn’t working and the WWE writers were too stupid to figure anything out.

Viewership stabilized or slightly increased… But then, fate would intervene as Vince McMahon‘s toxic workplace behavior forced him out and brought back Triple H. While HHH struggled during the 2010s creatively and managing talent, that was experiences to learn what to do or what NOT to do later on. Often, you need to take bumps and bruises before you can learn how to not get harmed. Fully experienced Triple H was ready to take on the WWE world and that he did. He built on the Bloodline and added wrinkles Sami Zayn being added to the group along with SLOWING things down to let storylines breathe and develop. Then, HHH would end Premium Live Events with a big storyline event such as the finale of Royal Rumble 2023.

With HHH’s guidance, many of the younger wrestlers began receiving opportunities while many other veterans were used better. For much of 2023, Smackdown drew 2.3 million viewers and that is a year BEFORE the Rock arrives and pumped up great numbers during the 1st quarter of 2024.

The moral of the story is this… Yes, Friday night is a difficult timeslot and is historically one of the least viewed nights on television. But if you have a GREAT PRODUCT that people WANT TO CONSUME, they’ll find a way to watch it on Friday Nights. Again, bang your wife or girlfriend after 10pm once Smackdown is over. Hell, it isn’t like Roman is an ugly man… Wives and girlfriends were welcome to watch, too, and WWE had some growth in the female demographic during the 2022 to early 2024 timeframe.

Also, once High School Football season ended and fed into Rumble to Wrestlemania season, viewership pumped up and usually grew during August for SummerSlam. Also, the WWE cashed in BIGTIME anytime during the Holidays and also when they happened to be following NFL games.

So not all is lost by moving on from FOX… WWE had their HOTTEST ANGLE at a time when they were available to be accessed by 100 million+ households. YES, not the ideal night with Friday Night timeslot, but again, a great product drives up demand to see your product on ANY night.

Now, however, they are only available in 70 million households with the USA Network. I’d expect some drop off and regularity of being at or possibly below 1.5 million viewers after the initial bump this Friday upon its debut. WWE will move Roman Reigns to Netflix where he’ll draw massively on a night other than Friday. Then, we’ll try see how great Cody is as a draw when he’s on Smackdown alone.

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