Triple H and Nick Khan could face pressure from TKO if WWE numbers continue to decline

JP Morgan analysts have lowered their price target for TKO from $225 to $222 ahead of the company’s August 3rd quarterly earnings report, while remaining well above its current stock price of around $182. According to Dave Meltzer of F4WOnline.com, the analysts cited higher costs, weaker fan sentiment, and fewer near-term catalysts as reasons for the downgrade. Meltzer noted it was significant that concerns about WWE’s online fan reaction were mentioned in a Wall Street report, suggesting the issue has reached the attention of investors.

The report estimates TKO will post $619 million in WWE revenue for the quarter, up 30% year over year, with EBITDA of $376 million, driven by increased media rights fees and sponsorship revenue. UFC revenue is projected at $505 million, up 26%, although EBITDA expectations were lowered because of costs associated with the White House event. Analysts also pointed to declining RAW viewership on Netflix, softer SummerSlam ticket demand, and concerns surrounding Zuffa Boxing as reasons for weakening sentiment. Despite that, they wrote, “WWE fan dissatisfaction is worth watching but is not yet a structural problem. Premium live event viewing appears to be growing, although RAW ratings are trending down year over year.”

Meltzer stated the following about the report’s potential impact…

“Regarding this, from inside WWE, while obviously once this has gotten to JP Morgan which affects stock price it is a story. I was told even so, right now nothing is expected to happen until around 2028 at which point the Netflix deal and USA deals will be in play, with both ending at the end of 2029. If numbers aren’t strong, we’re told that’s when Mark Shapiro and company will really start pressuring [WWE President] Nick Khan and Levesque [Triple H].”