AEW and Casual Fans – A Counter-Argument

“I’d be surprised if anyone really responds to this here…” – J.P. Tokusen / TKW.

I’m sure the irony won’t be lost on the AEW fans when I respond with “challenge accepted.”

First, let’s set the scene here. I am not an AEW fan, but that doesn’t mean I hate AEW, nor does it mean I’m interested in ‘fixing’ AEW. I bear no vitriol towards wrestling’s Vanarama National League, I simply don’t give a shit about it. And to me that’s a problem for the company, because while I’m clearly not a 100% casual fan (I’m literally writing an internet article about wrestling) I’m also not a hardcore, card-carrying member of the IWC. I like wrestling. I like writing. Put the two together, I’m happy.

Pictured: the perfect combination of wrestling and writing.

Cards on the table, I am exactly the kind of fan TKW is referencing. I like the fact that AEW exists because it makes WWE better. I’m not actually watching AEW from week to week. I dip in occasionally and I’ll agree with the points that 2024 involves more storytelling, higher production, and a generally more advertiser-friendly product; doesn’t that sound like AEW is slowly turning into a more WWE-style product though? Can AEW be considered to have an alternative identity if it’s also turning to higher production values and attempting to be advertiser-friendly? Those are facets of a business, which is where the casual fans come in.

AEW has signed a multi-million dollar, multi-year deal with Warner Bros Discovery. Kudos to them. If indeed it’s $150 million dollars a year that will make a big dent in their estimated yearly expenses of $188 million (thanks to the good folks at wrestlenomics.com for that stat). Now obviously, AEW makes money in other ways and as a company that’s backed by billionaires it’s not the end of the world if they make a loss for a few more years. But at some point the company needs to make money, and in order to maintain it’s presence on international television will need a demonstrable fanbase that’s large enough to keep big networks interested. These next few years will be crucial to the ongoing development of AEW. And don’t give me “but they’re celebrating a five-year anniversary, everything must be going well!” TNA is 22 years old now and has gone from targeting WWE’s throne to propping up its developmental league.

As I’ve implied, the purpose of this article isn’t to offer any “fixes” for AEW; right now, the company doesn’t appeal to me and that’s fine, but only if AEW fans are happy to remain the alternative. By which I mean: put down your delusions of WCW-grandeur and accept that AEW is simply a rich man’s ECW. And again, that is absolutely fine. But please, please, please don’t tell us that we’re watching a successful business. It’s not a successful business, it’s a niche-filler. Being an alternative comes with a few, uh, provisos, a couple of quid pro quos.

I fundamentally disagree with the idea that fans were drawn into the Monday Night Wars because they were presented with something different. They were drawn into the Monday Night Wars because they were presented with something that fit perfectly into what the mainstream thought was cool at the time. Being different wasn’t the main factor; WCW was different, but correlation does not necessarily equal causation. WWE was in such a decline in the mid-90s that WCW could’ve beaten them by doing exactly the same thing but with bigger names. The reason they grew into the short-lived behemoth they did was because they were cool, and that appealed to a mainstream fanbase.

Now that’s cool.

The fanbase of AEW is dropping significantly and that’s because it’s only appealing to a niche market of properly hardcore wrestling fans. It’s not quite apples to apples, but if we take the average viewership for Dynamite in November 2019 (the high interest for the debut show in October would unfairly skew the average, in my opinion) they were getting 834k viewers a week. In September 2024 that number has dropped to 691k. That’s a 17% loss. If that same trend continues for the next five years, they’ll be at 573k.

In all probability, that won’t happen. They’ll stabilise at around 650-700k based on recent trends, and unless the quality of the product absolutely falls off a cliff then AEW will be “okay”. But it won’t be a thriving business, it won’t be in significant growth, and at some point TV companies are going to decrease or pull their funding. And hey, maybe by that point the AEW fanbase will be so doggedly loyal that they’ll pay for a Patreon subscription to keep the company afloat. Maybe it’ll turn into something more akin to the original All In and have massive twice-yearly shows in relatively big venues with the crème de la crème of independent wrestling. As long as Tony Khan has a passion for wrestling, AEW will continue to exist in some form or another. But not as a successful business. And then he’ll end up a millionaire who should be a billionaire. Why? Because he surrounded himself with glad-handing, nonsensical, douche bag yes-men.

Okay, maybe I do have some skin in the game. I’m a huge CM Punk fan and I’ll admit to enjoying a certain sense of schadenfreude that the decline in viewership coincides with his departure from the company. But that doesn’t mean I want AEW to fail, I just want it to accept its position in the world.

What I find utterly nonsensical about AEW is the juxtaposition between wanting to stay “edgy” or “alternative” and ignore casual fans… and then booking Wembley Stadium for 2026! I’ve been to Wembley several times over the years and one thing I can confidently tell you about it is this: Wembley is fucking huge. Putting aside all the backstage shenanigans, the 2023 edition was a resounding success. 72,000 fans is an incredible return, but look at the drop for the 2024 edition: 46,000. A 36% decrease. That means one in three people who went to the first All In declined the opportunity to come back. I’m sorry, say what you like about TV deals but that is not a successful business. So why did that decline happen? Could it be about casual fans?

See? It’s huge!

Of the 13 “top tier” performers at 2024’s edition, only Daniel Bryan and Sasha Banks weren’t present for 2023. Look at the list of performers who appeared relatively prominently at both shows:

Swerve Strickland.

Jack Perry.

Darby Allin.

Britt Baker.

Will Ospreay.

MJF.

Christian.

Chris Jericho.

FTR.

Young Bucks.

Toni Storm.

Now look at the top-tier performers who are missing from 2024:

CM Punk.

Sting.

Paige.

Love him or hate him, CM Punk is a fucking draw ladies and gentlemen. Sting is an absolute mainstream legend of the wrestling business. Paige is an actual women’s wrestling star who also has incredible appeal in the UK as one of our own. If AEW wants a return to (almost) filling Wembley Stadium, they need stars that appeal to casual fans. Otherwise, All In 2026 should move to a smaller venue. The UK only has four stadiums which could accommodate All In 2023. The 2024 edition would’ve fit into 15 with at least 2,000 empty seats each. And just so I’m clear this is no disrespect to Daniel Bryan or Sasha Banks, both of whom are legit wrestling stars in their own right. But evidently what they don’t have is mainstream appeal. Daniel Bryan has had his day (even the staunchest of AEW fans can’t possibly take offence at that, he’s literally said 2024 will be his final year of full-time wrestling) and Sasha hasn’t moved the needle since joining AEW.

Now, credit where it’s due: taking a year off from Wembley is a fantastic idea. There are enough hardcore wrestling fans in Europe (you can drive from England to Greece and back in the same time you can drive between NYC and LA) that will make the pilgrimage if it’s more of a novelty than a regular yearly event. But even then, will it hit the heights of 2023? I doubt it.

And this really is where I take umbrage with the idea that AEW doesn’t need casual fans. Technically yes, AEW is doing just fine on its own. The fans are hardcore, loyal, and evidently utterly entranced by the product in front of them. But if AEW wants to call itself a successful business and/or run regular stadium shows then I’m sorry but yes, they do need casual fans. They do need to be more advertiser-friendly and prioritise production values. They do need to be more like the WWE.

Or they need to stop booking stadium shows and accept who they are. ECW with billionaire backing.

Either is absolutely fine with me. I’m delighted there are now two places where wrestlers can become millionaires. But I’m a casual fan and unless AEW offers me something I’m interested in, I’m only going to bother watching the Best In The World.